Central America and Mexico 2026/27 Harvest Update 

This article at a glance: 

• Production is expected to fall by 9.3% to below 18 million bags. 
• Early pickings start in October, with harvest building through November. 
• Peak harvest is expected between December and February. 
• IMPACT verification is expanding and a new regenerative agriculture project is underway in Guatemala. 

A Smaller Crop After a Strong Year  
The 2025/26 harvest reached 19.68 million bags of Arabica and Robusta, exceeding expectations and coming in on par with the 2020/21 harvest of 19.66 million bags. Good weather in the first half of 2025 and recovering crops were responsible for the positive result. This year paints a different picture. The weather anomalies of the first half of 2026, combined with a negative biennial cycle in Arabica, are reducing the region’s production potential to below 18 million bags. That’s 9.3% down on last season. Honduras and Mexico show the steepest drops, followed closely by Guatemala. 

Quality to Watch 
Quality is the main uncertainty this season. A lack of rainfall and higher temperatures, especially in the third quarter, have hit the region’s main producing areas. This has already led to more drought-affected cherries and a gradual rise in coffee berry borer damage. Together, these factors pose a quality risk and shift the balance between exportable green coffee and stock lots.  

We’ve confirmed bean-filling issues at the lowest altitudes in Honduras, especially in the western region. This is increasing cherry-to-parchment conversions at wet milling and will be very noticeable during the first two months of the harvest. In Guatemala, the damage is lower than in Honduras but still higher than in the previous crop cycle.  

“Pest and disease control in the last quarter of the year will be key. The question for producers and institutions in the region is what they are doing now to prevent further quality decline,” says Oscar. 

A Normal Harvest Timeline 
The harvest is following a typical pattern. First sanitation pickings began in October, and will be followed by the first main pickings in November. The peak is expected in December and January in low and mid altitudes, and in January and February in high altitudes. The harvest should wrap up in March and April in most of the origins we monitor. 

Mexico is the origin that needs the closest monitoring. Last year, rust outbreaks spiked to very high levels because Arabica producers did not take preventive action. Our recent field visits show a very similar scenario. If preventive work continues to be neglected, rust incidence could rise again. 

Sustainability at Origin 
Verification under IMPACT, Sucafina’s Responsible Sourcing Program, is progressing well across the region. We have onboarded new groups in Honduras and Nicaragua, advanced re-verifications in Honduras and Mexico and expanded volumes in Mexico. 

In Guatemala, we launched a new project with TechnoServe, a non-profit focused on rural development. Financed through FMO, the project is developing a rewards program that encourages smallholder coffee farmers to adopt regenerative agriculture practices. 
 
We also partner with Seeds for Progress to strengthen rural education in coffee-growing communities across Santa Rosa, Jalapa and Chiquimula in Guatemala. Their work covers school infrastructure and teacher training. It also gives children safe places to learn during the harvest, while their parents are working. You can read more about the program and its recent work here.

You can support this work through coffee too. Chaak, our IMPACT Verified blend from these same three regions, contributes with every purchase to Opportunity through Pre-School Education, our IMPACT Beyond Flagship project in Guatemala.  Interested in purchasing? Now is a great time to reach out! 

We’ll keep sharing updates from the field as the harvest moves forward. If you’re planning volumes from Central America, reach out to your trader.